Arc Raiders’ controversial ABMM isn’t what you think — and Shrouded Sky shows why

Arc Raiders is tweaking the rules of engagement – and the conversation is just getting louder

Arc Raiders just rolled into a major moment: the Shrouded Sky update, a second Expedition, and a community still arguing over what “aggression-based matchmaking” actually does. If you only skim the forums, ABMM sounds like a binary switch that locks you into either ‘friendly’ or ‘kill-everything’ lobbies. Embark Studios’ design director Virgil Watkins says that’s a misunderstanding – and between his interview with PC Gamer, a new audio tease for a stealthy ARC called the “Firefly” (Steam News), and Nexon elevating Embark CEO Patrick Söderlund to executive chairman (PC Gamer/Eurogamer), the story is bigger than one system.

• ABMM is a behavior-weighted matchmaking system, not a hard friendly/aggressive split, says design director Virgil Watkins (PC Gamer).
• Expeditions and blueprints are being tuned – currency and grind overshot some players, and carryover ideas aren’t off the table.
• New content (the Firefly ARC) and Nexon’s promotion of Patrick Söderlund signal resources and pressure to scale Arc Raiders as a major live service.

Breaking down ABMM: nuance over binary labels

If you heard “aggression-based matchmaking” and assumed the game will auto-cast you into a “safe” or “aggro” realm, Watkins wants you to stop. As he told PC Gamer, the system looks at patterns across rounds and player motivation — not one-off actions. Shoot a raider by accident and you’re not doomed to a bloodbath in every future round; the matchmaking is “far more nuanced,” he said.

That matters because Arc Raiders lives or dies on the tension between PvE and PvP. Watkins admits the team was surprised by how many players leaned into peaceful, social interactions during tests — swapping blueprints on rooftops, trading music, roleplaying — even when the game can reward theft and ambush. His stance: don’t strip away emergent social moments in the name of predictability. Instead, tune tools and balance so players who want fair PvP actually have reliable ways to engage it.

Progression and Expeditions: admit the grind, then fix it

Expeditions and blueprints are the engine of Arc Raiders’ progression — and players noticed the engine wasn’t perfectly calibrated. Watkins concedes the Expedition currency in the second run “overshot” and nudged players toward chasing currency too hard. Embark trimmed some numbers for Expedition two, but says a larger revamp is likely: tie more loops into Expeditions, reduce the feeling of mandatory resets, and consider giving players limited carryover of prized blueprints.

That last point is crucial. Blueprints are power elevation — hand someone a favored blueprint and you change the meta. Embark floated the “safe pocket” idea pre-launch and hasn’t ruled it out; but Watkins also suggested solving the pain point by diversifying how blueprints are found, not just by letting players hoard them. Translation for players: expect incremental changes and possibly a future rework rather than a single dramatic fix.

Live service growing pains — and why Nexon’s moves matter

Running a live extraction shooter is different from building one in a vacuum. Watkins candidly described the strain of having to drop work for emergency fixes — whether nasty bugs or DDoS attacks — and how that impacts long-term feature delivery. Embark is still building the “muscle” for continuous operations.

Which brings us to the corporate angle: both PC Gamer and Eurogamer report Nexon promoted Patrick Söderlund to executive chairman following Arc Raiders’ breakout success. That’s not just a vanity move. It signals deeper investment and expectations: more resources to scale live operations, but also greater pressure to keep player numbers and revenue high. New content teases — like the audio-first trailer for the stealthy “Firefly” ARC arriving with Shrouded Sky (Steam News) — show Embark is already pushing fresh threats into foliage-heavy maps to keep top-side runs tense.

What this means for players

If you’re a PvE-focused player worried ABMM will doom you, Watkins’ explanation should ease some fears: the system tracks behavior patterns, not single incidents, and the devs say they want both social runs and bloodbath runs to exist. If you’re a grinder chasing blueprints, expect changes to the Expedition economy and possible blueprint acquisition alternatives. And if you care about the health of the live service, Nexon’s move and the steady drip of ARCs like the Firefly mean Embark has both the pressure and the fuel to iterate fast — for better and worse.

There’s still one big unknown: matchmaking math. Embark is transparent about design intent but not about the exact weights and thresholds, so myths will persist until long-term telemetry and patch logs tell the full story.

TL;DR

ABMM is behavior-based and nuanced, not a hard friendly/aggressive split, but it will keep being tuned. Expeditions and blueprint systems are getting iterative fixes after an overshoot in economy design. Nexon’s promotion of Patrick Söderlund and teases like the Firefly ARC raise the stakes — Embark has the resources to move fast, and players will be watching whether that speed improves the live experience or just churns new drama into the system.