What One Battle After Another’s $100M Flop Teaches AAA Games

When a $130M Prestige Film Feels Like a AAA Game Failure

Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another earned a rare 95% critic score yet still tipped Warner Bros into a reported nine-figure loss. It features Leonardo DiCaprio, Sean Penn, a Jonny Greenwood score and premium film formats—everything you’d expect in a prestige tentpole. And yet, with a production budget north of $130 million and marketing costs factored in, the film underperformed at the global box office by an estimated $100 million.

Sound familiar to anyone in games? Swap “director” for “creative lead,” “DiCaprio” for “AAA franchise,” and you’ve got stories like Titanfall 2, Prey (2017) or Dishonored 2. Critically adored, but outmaneuvered by marketing missteps, budget misalignment and crowded launch windows.

Key Takeaways

• Prestige and star power don’t guarantee mass appeal or profit.
• Budgets must match the project’s realistic audience size and scope.
• Marketing clarity beats vague “vibes”—set expectations early.
• Release timing and platform strategy can make or break momentum.
• Plan for a long tail with updates, ports, and community support.

Case Study: One Battle After Another’s Misaligned Pitch

When One Battle After Another debuted in late September 2025, it faced stiff competition from superhero blockbusters and family franchises. Its trailers leaned into character drama and tonal complexity—exactly the kind of “auteur” vibe PTA fans crave. But a $130 million production cost, plus another $80–100 million on promotion, meant it needed broad appeal to recoup.

Opening to just $22 million in North America and finishing with roughly $180 million worldwide, Warner Bros is staring at a potential $100 million loss once P&A and exhibitor cuts are included. Critics loved it, but audiences expecting a DiCaprio-fueled action blockbuster found something more arthouse than arm-cannon. That mismatch sunk word of mouth before the weekend box office could build momentum.

Game Parallels: Prestige Titles That Struggled

Titanfall 2: A Critical Darling Lost in the Shooters’ Shuffle

Released October 28, 2016, Respawn’s Titanfall 2 scored around 89 on Metacritic but launched between Battlefield 1 and Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare. Marketing leaned heavily on single-player and movement, but many players still expected a pure multiplayer shooter. Sales suffered as the market was already saturated—Respawn shipped solid gameplay and novel mechanics, but its audience was spread across rival brands.

Dishonored 2: Masterful Design, Modest Returns

Arkane’s Dishonored 2 (November 2016) delivered refined stealth and immersive sim systems, earning an 88 Metacritic score. Yet it failed to match the original’s sales, partly because it launched the same week as Mafia III and amidst holiday blockbusters. Fans praised elongated levels and systemic depth, but the marketing tried to position it as a broader action-thriller, diluting its core stealth identity.

Prey (2017): From Modest Launch to Cult Classic

Prey (May 5, 2017) from Arkane was a niche, sci-fi first-person experience. Critics rated it around 82 and praised its emergent gameplay. Initial sales were modest, overshadowed by competitors like E3 reveals and open-world blockbusters that summer. But Bethesda’s later decision to add Prey to Game Pass in 2020 expanded its audience dramatically, turning a once-quiet launch into a long-tail success story.

Why These Flops Happen—and How to Avoid Them

1. Align Budget with Audience

Spending $130 million on a character-driven thriller sets expectations for Marvel returns. In games, equating your budget to the same scale as a Fortnite-level hit means you need Fortnite-level reach. Know your lane: if you’re building a thoughtful immersive sim or narrative adventure, budget for a 1–3 million unit sale, not 20 million. Scope and spending must reflect the size of your core community.

2. Market the Experience Honestly

Trailer editing can’t paint over a methodical, atmospheric loop and turn it into a popcorn shooter. Sony succeeded with Death Stranding by marketing it as a walk-y sim from an auteur—no false promises. AAA teams pitching a slow-build cyberpunk world must signal that early, targeting creators and audiences aligned with the vibe. Clear messaging converts committed fans; vague messaging refunds the curious.

3. Choose Your Launch Window Like a Boss Fight

Releasing opposite a juggernaut is a guaranteed roadblock. Respawn’s October positioning for Titanfall 2 saw it sandwiched between two franchise giants. Dishonored 2 faced similar timing issues in November. Larger studios can walk into holiday; midsize teams need gaps. Use demos, betas, creator previews, and timed updates to extend discovery well beyond week one—your “theatrical window” may be months, not days.

Building Evergreen Momentum: The Long-Tail Playbook

When prestige projects find their real audience, they live on. Here’s how games can build that resilience:

• Mod and Community Support: Prey’s mod tools preserved engagement years later. Encourage user creations and spotlight top mods.
• Performance and Platform Polishing: Ensure strong PC ports, next-gen patches, and support tropical platforms. A smooth technical experience invites positive word of mouth.
• Meaningful Updates: Drip out story DLC, new modes or challenge maps to re-ignite discussion. Each patch is an opportunity to re-enter the conversation.
• Subscription Strategies: If you join Game Pass or PS Plus, time the drop to extend the runway rather than cannibalize initial sales.

Actionable Checklist for Studios and Marketers

• Budget Smart: Calibrate production and marketing costs to realistic sales targets—know your audience size before setting your budget.
• Market with Precision: Craft trailers and pitches that highlight your core gameplay loop and tone. Use targeted channels and community partnerships.
• Plan Your Windows: Map out competitor releases, demos, betas, and post-launch updates to extend your discovery window beyond the first week.

Conclusion: Prestige Isn’t a Substitute for Strategy

One Battle After Another reminds us that critical acclaim without strategic alignment leads to commercial failure. In gaming, that means matching scope with community, being honest in marketing, and staggering your release timing. When studios get these elements in sync, prestige projects can transcend niche and become evergreen hits. Otherwise, even a 95% critic score and big names won’t save you from a flop.

TL;DR

Six-figure budgets and marquee names can’t mask a misaligned product. Budget to your core audience, market the real experience, and treat launch timing like a boss fight. That’s how you turn critical darlings into financial successes—on screen and on consoles.